Article contains much thought provoking material

--The importance of culture

--The difficulty of overcoming cultural differences

--Why cultural differences can lead to conflict

--Perhaps most important for us - Many non-Western cultures view the West with extreme distrust

-----View Western Culture as Anathema

-----View Arms Control as a Western Construct

-----View the West as trying to dominate the rest

-----View the West as wasteful consumers, squanderers of natural resources and wealth

-----Use Anti-Western themes to rally popular support

-----"the values that are most important in the West are least important worldwide."-Harry Triandis, quoted in Huntington Implications

--Wars will be much more intractable in the future

--Rather than governments, we may face whole populations

--Populations may (and probably will ferverently believe in their cause

--We must understand the foundations of these conflicts

--Truly short wars may be a thing of the past

--We will need new ways of looking at world problems

Robert Kaplan, The Coming Anarchy (read here online), Feb '94 Atlantic Monthly

"A pre-modern formlessness governs the battlefield, evoking the wars in medieval Europe prior to the 1648 Pease of Westphalia...West Africa is becoming the symbol of worldwide demographic, environmental, and societal stress, in which criminal anarchy emerges as the real 'strategic' danger. Disease, overpopulation, unprovoked crime, scarcity of resources, refugee migrations, the increasing erosion of nation-states and international borders, and the empowerment of private armies, security firms, and international drug cartels are now most tellingly demonstrated through a West African prism."

Some key points

--Environment - key security issue of 21st Century

--Erosion of arable land will cause migration and famine

--Demand for western Lifestyles will tax natural resources

--Population increases further stress and already stressed environment

--Democracy is problematic, scarcity is more certain

--We are entering a bifurcated world:

* The healthy, well-fed, and pampered by technology

* Those for whom life is "poor, nasty, brutish and short."

-----As problems increase, state border of much less importance.

-----The "state" itself is a western notion which may not be applicable to the rest of the world.

Implications

--Future enemies may not have a structured govenment to attack.

--We will have to deal with problems previously overlooked.

-----Colonial era borders that do not reflect ethnic divisions.

-----Poverty in developing nations as broadcast on the media.

-----That the Western vision of culture & the good life is not accepted by all.

Implications of both Huntington and Kaplan:

--More not less conflict

--Greater variety of sources of conflict.

--A markedly different world political system which may not share common goals.

--We will have to deal with non-nation state combatants which may be immune to traditional forms of coercion.

To these views, add those of the changing nature of war.

Martin van Creveld; The Transformation of War

"Once the legal monopoly of armed force, long claimed by the state, is wrested out of its hands, existing distinctions between war and crime will break down, much as is already the case today in.....Lebanon, Sri Lanka, El Salvador, Peru, and Colombia."

Some key points:

--War is an end, not a means for many people--people fight because they like to, it appeals to them

--Physical aggession is a part of being human

--Aggression is tranquilized only in highly educated, well off societies--not applicable to much of the world

--When crime & war merge, defense is a local concept

--Small scale, local violence will result in local solutions below the nation state level

--National armies may become obsolete because they can't adapt.

Implications:

--National armies will have to adapt or society will turn to other institutions.

--We need new ways to think about war.

--4th Generation Warfare

Another view of future war, Alvin & Heidi Toffler's War and Anti-War

--Three Waves - Agrarian, Industrial and Information age societies.

--The world will subdivide into smaller, local socio-economic entities, of transnational companies in alliance with city-regional governments.

The world less rational and more susceptible to chance.

--The risk of unanticipated consequences increases

--The public changes focus when the media changes focus.

--Today's governments cannot deal with these rapid changes.

--Hyper-diversification will result in niche warfare to deal with widespread, diversified causes, and local wars.

--Niche warfare is specialized units and operations to deal with very specific problems as opposed to general purpose forces.

"Niche warfare will become more important because governments will find it a relatively low-cost option--compared with fielding large conventional forces--to accomplish their goals. It can be used not merely for tactical but for strategic purposes."

Implications:

--We face a much more complex international environment

--The world is undergoing a fundamental transformation, we don't know the consequences yet.

Implications of Van Creveld and Toffler:

--New forms of warfare on the horizon

--New sources of conflict emerging

--Potential for multiple, simultaneous, but smaller conflicts, not tied together by a common thread, such as ideology

--Blurred lines between war and peace & war and crime

--Ability to clearly articulate national interest will be difficult

All commmentators have much more developed arguments.

All have points that are probably wrong, and some that are probably right.

All point to a much different world than we face today.

Many other views available, to include Kissinger's new book on diplomacy and Fukuyama's The End of History.

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RESPONSE:
The 1^st Tactical Studies Group (Airborne) sees that all these commentators miss the truth by not clearly addressing the root cause of war itself: the human condition; without doing this, they fail to see what causes wars, how they will unfold and WHY. A proper outline of the future face of war would be:

"Michael L. Sparks: "Are we preparing for the wrong pattern of war?", Behind the Lines, "A truer definition of War", accepted for publication in 1996.

--Existential despair is common thread to modern human thinking: Death is imminent

--Modern media has propagated this message and is all pervasive; the camera reaches all corners of the world

--Modern man is moving into cities to live in to seek material creature comforts since death is at the door, world is urbanizing rapidly

--War is more accurately defined as a conflict of ideasnot just armed violence of organized armies squared off on a rural, linear battlefield; the people themselves are the prize and sometimes the combatants; he who gains their loyalty wins the war: This is 4th Generation War

--Human history is a continuum: "nothing is over until its over"; EG: which has triumphed in Vietnam, communism or freedom? Who "won" the war then?

--Sun Tzu not Clausewitz

--Bible and Science

--World moves by the speed of air, not sea. The future of war is Airborne not amphibious

--Fallacy of Toffler's waves of human progress: Man as part godlike being/fallen creature-being is free to pick/choose aspects of any societal form-anything can occur. No linear "progression" has to be valued or perceived. What is is what is, "older" or "newer" doesn't mean better necessarily.

--People cause wars and people live in cities; Digitalized U.S. military that ignores physical mechanical advantage will stumble into defeat/stalemate in cities; we need new surgical siege capability as maneuver armies in the past have discovered when they got stuck in fortifications.

--Godless, existentialist U.S. military that ignores the spiritual aspect of man by selfish careerism, abusing 19th century linear organizational structures will continue to fail to harness the complete creativity and thinking obedience of their men. Result will be a failure to adapt to the world around them due to egos intertwined with methods; lost battles and wars could end U.S. as super power.

--Media/Sensor covered battlefield will require the bold and unusual in order to achieve surprise/success; the predictable will result in disaster against alert foes

--U.S. as world's superpower needs to be MORAL Judaeo-Christian leader that:

-----a. Propagates Judaeo-Christian hope/world view to counter existentialist despair and root causes of conflict

-----b. Lead way in re-engineering earth civilization into a high-tech, yet eco-friendly lifestyle capable of withstanding the coming world weather changes/natural disasters etc.

-----c. Employs a highly efficient, surgical Airborne Ground force that can move within hours to any spot of the globe, converge on the enemy's center of gravity and defeat him with civic action, PSYOPs, and controlled force. Sun Tzu's winning "without battle" one step further: Make enemies into our friends

--Mankind's creator will return in actual space-time history to set mankind/earth in order

--Conventional, general purpose U.S. military forces hopelessly mired in obsolete thinking, U.S. Airborne/Special Operations Forces are in best position to lead the way towards adapting to future conflict arena

--Airborne/SOF community in order to keep faith with its men must adopt an egalitarian leadership/organizational style that is founded on the Judaeo-Christian truth that each Soldier has intrinsic, unconditional worth and creativity. His input is vital to success on the non-linear arena and sought after. Egos remain separate from methods, the reality that there is no mythical "Army way" of doing things is understood by all ranks so flexible, innovative and most of all unpredictable methods are employed.

--Airborne/SOF community needs surgical, organic, ground level shock action to dominate the increasingly urban arena and be prepared to put out fires and correct damage inflicted

--Airborne/SOF community needs to be able to preempt external sub-national group attacks by direct action concurrent with "hearts and minds" campaigns to redress social ills by effective Judaeo-Christian inspired government of the people

--The truth is valued and never distorted for the sake of short term tactical gains in all communications with populace that we are seeking to win over. No subordinate is to be punished for telling the truth about any matter

An honor code that is egalitarian and unselfish be adopted for all U.S. Soldiers not just officers at service academies. ALL Soldiers are to have honor not just those with arrogant college degree mentalities.

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What are implications for SOF?

--Increasing chaos will create multiple opportunities for OOTW

--Dividing line between OOTW and War will blur, i.e. Somalia

--Any use of military force (even HA and disaster relief) have potential for conflict

-----Our nation's leaders must recognize this

-----The American Public must recognize this

-----We cannot make firm, clear distinctions between War and Operations Other That War--they will frequently run together.

--Virtually no use of military force in the future will be risk free.

SOF MAY become much more important

--SOF are ideally suited to help solve basic problems with CA, Psyop and FID missions combined

--SOF are only deployable forces that are culturally attuned and language trained--increasingly important as culture assumes greater importance

--SOF have a small footprint and may be able to provide help without causing resentment that larger forces can.

--SOF can be used as economy of force, when conventional forces are tied up elsewhere. As conflicts proliferate, this is important

--In the information age, PSYOP will be, potentially, the most powerful tool available. We have only scratched the surface.

--Small local conflicts increase likelihood small local problems for American interests - small, specialized military options may be only applicable force -- SOF provide this

BUT, SOF will only be relevant if we can adapt to changing world.

We must adapt to a post-Cold war world.

--We are still stuck with Cold War inertia in thought process and structure

--We are still structured to put 250-300 teams behind the Soviet borders.

--We do not have our heads in the future.

--We are still basically the same force structure we entered with in 1987.

IT IS TIME FOR CHANGE - WE MUST LEAD OR WE WILL BE OVERRUN.

--We must understand the emerging world "disorder."

--We must understand information warfare and niche warfare.

--We must rethink our roles and missions - must be relevant to tomorrow's threats, across full range of operations in peace and war.

SOF must develop new paradigms of warfare to address these new forms.

--I don't know what they look like.

--You don't, or maybe some or you do.

--We must look for new solutions.

Much also written on how to adapt to new situations.

I commend Margaret Wheately's, Leadership and the New Science to you. Talks about reinventing organizations.

--New models of how orgainzations work.

--The value of information flow.

--The need to look for totally new solutions.

--But - most important - recognize that chaos can provide the impetus and the shock needed to re-evaluate:

-----What we do

-----How we do it

The emerging order may create chaos on a grand scale.

SOF must take this opportunity to thoroughly re-evaulate our roles and contribution to national security.

--Keep that which makes us Special.

--Get rid of that which in no longer applicable, regardless of how much we might be wedded to it.

--Search for new paradigms with which to secure this nation's future.

This is a business for SMART people

We can be our front, if we adapt.

Maneuver Warfare Board/4th Generation Warfare

I ask your help in finding these new solutions. SOF Clearinghouse is up and running, forming initiatives groups to work with you

This Forum is part of the process

Thank AUSA for your support in this important endeavor.

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